The Sunday killing of Mexican drug lord Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, and retaliatory violence in and around Guadalajara, has raised safety concerns before the 2026 World Cup, which will feature four games in Jalisco, the Mexican state most affected by the unrest.
A World Cup qualifying playoff event is scheduled to take place at Jalisco’s Estadio Akron in late March, while the venue is also due to host four World Cup group games in June.
The unrest sparked considerable concerns Sunday and Monday morning, and within FIFA, one senior official, speaking anonymously as he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said the organization had been gripped by worry amid the chaotic scenes playing out across news channels globally. The official also warned that the playoff games may become vulnerable to relocation if FIFA cannot be swiftly satisfied that all participants and stakeholders will be safe.
Yet by Monday evening, Mexican authorities had begun to restore order. And late Monday night, FIFA rallied behind its Mexican partners. A spokesperson claimed it would be inaccurate and misleading to suggest there are significant concerns, and insisted they had “full confidence” in all three World Cup host countries — Mexico, Canada and the United States.
Mexico’s National Guard special forces have been deployed amid a state of high alert. (Karla Guerrero / ObturadorMX / Getty Images)
The spokesperson stopped short of a full-throated confirmation that the playoff games would remain in Guadalajara, saying that FIFA would not comment on “hypotheticals and speculation.”
“At FIFA Mexico, we are closely monitoring the situation in Jalisco and remain in constant communication with the authorities,” the spokesperson added. “We will continue to follow the actions and directions from the different government agencies, aimed at maintaining public safety and restoring normalcy, and we reiterate our close collaboration with federal, state, and local authorities.”
What is happening in Guadalajara?
The state of Jalisco, which includes the metropolitan area of Guadalajara, has been under red alert — the highest level of security amid a crisis — ever since Mexican authorities killed Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation cartel (CJNG).
Following the killing, purported members of the CJNG engaged in several armed standoffs with the Mexican army. Cartel members also set cars on fire and created roadblocks. Businesses were set ablaze as chaos raged throughout the city. There was also a prison riot in Puerto Vallarta.
Jalisco governor Pablo Lemus ordered the suspension of public transportation, in-person classes and mass events for the remainder of the day on Sunday and on Monday. Those protocols will continue through Tuesday, though local media reported Monday night that some businesses would re-open and school would resume on Wednesday.
Additionally, Liga MX Femenil postponed Sunday night’s derby between Chivas of Guadalajara and Club América at the Estadio Akron. Other soccer matches were also called off. But the Mexican men’s national team’s Wednesday friendly against Iceland is still on in Queretaro.
“We are working to restore peace in the state of Jalisco,” Lemus said on Monday. “We are working to gradually begin normal day-to-day activities throughout Jalisco, including surrounding highways.”
Guadalajara’s Estadio Akron is one of three Mexican host stadiums. (Ulises Ruiz / AFP via Getty Images)
Why is this a concern for the World Cup?
The Estadio Akron, which is situated in Zapopan, near Guadalajara, will host four World Cup matches from June 11-26. (Nine more matches, including the World Cup opener, will take place in Mexico City and Monterrey, the two other Mexican host cities.)
The overhanging threat is that violence in the area could spill over and endanger teams, officials and fans who travel to greater Guadalajara for the games, in addition to locals.
Whether or not the unrest will subside or resurge between now and June is unknowable because intra-cartel dynamics are suddenly evolving, rapidly, in real-time, experts told The Athletic.
“You’re looking at potential fragmentation of organized crime, and destabilization of organized crime structures, throughout a large swath of Mexican territory — right before the World Cup,” Nathan Jones, a scholar who’s studied Mexico’s cartels and government responses, said in a phone interview. “It makes it almost impossible to predict how this is going to play out.”
How has FIFA responded?
FIFA’s statements to The Athletic late Monday were its first public comments on the situation. Throughout the day, senior personnel had been seeking to make sense of what the events might mean for their showpiece tournament this summer.
While FIFA does have executives based in Mexico City, the scope and size of its operations there are by no means equivalent to its foothold in the United States. FIFA has established offices in both South Florida and New York City. Gianni Infantino’s charm offensive towards U.S. President Donald Trump has not been replicated in Mexico, where relations between FIFA and the host country are professional but not quite the same type of direct hotline.
One senior FIFA official, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, told The Athletic on Monday that the organization’s information-gathering capacity and influence on policy is not as strong in Mexico. This, the official said, has left FIFA’s HQ scrambling for answers as global news organizations zoomed in on scenes of violence and unrest in Guadalajara.
President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico with FIFA chief Gianni Infantino. (Tasos Katopodis / FIFA via Getty Images)
A FIFA spokesperson denied this, insisting that “FIFA has and maintains strong relationships with all three host country governments.”
“In Mexico, the communication and work with the federal task force for the 2026 FIFA World Cup dates back more than three years,” the spokesperson said. “Mexico is approaching World Cup planning as a matter of national security and national pride, and they have resourced the planning accordingly. FIFA is confident in the intelligence and operational capabilities of its Mexican partners.”
Guadalajara has also previously committed to hosting a full 39 days of FIFA Fan Fest during the tournament. That will now come with a need for increased security and surveillance.
FIFA has requested on-the-ground reports from its team in Mexico to learn more information, which will likely also involve collaboration with the Mexican Football Federation and government officials.
If Guadalajara isn’t safe, could FIFA relocate games?
A well-placed source within FIFA told The Athletic on Monday that the organization would only consider relocating World Cup games as a very last resort, and this would only come if or after significant concerns were relayed both by safety and security officials as well as commercial partners.
A FIFA spokesperson insisted that “safety and security remain the top priority, and FIFA has full confidence in all three host countries.” They said it would be misleading to suggest there has at this stage been “pressure” from any external influences.
FIFA has already sold tens of thousands of tickets to the four Guadalajara games. Fans have paid hundreds of dollars apiece, and also shelled out for hotels, which have hiked prices to capitalize on the tournament. In December, an Athletic analysis of hotel prices in World Cup host markets found that prices at a selection of Guadalajara hotels were 405 percent higher in mid-June than three weeks earlier.
Fans, therefore, would likely need to be refunded if matches were moved. All sorts of transportation and security plans would need to be formulated in the replacement city on short notice. This would not be straightforward. Venues and training bases often need to be booked far in advance, at significant cost.
A more likely solution, according to Jones, the scholar, is that the Mexican government would “do a saturation strategy, where the military comes in — and the national guard — and really shows that they have a capability of [securing] the area.”
In fact, authorities have already taken steps to quell the unrest. During a news conference on Monday, Lemus, the Jalisco governor, said that an additional 2,000 military personnel were on the ground in Guadalajara. He reiterated the government’s objective to restore order in the city and urged citizens to adhere to statements and updates from verified sources.
Jalisco governor Pablo Lemus has vowed to restore order in Guadalajara. (Fernando Sanchez / Europa Press via Getty Images)
On Sunday, a spokesman for Lemus told The Athletic the governor’s office had not received any communications from FIFA “that should concern us. We are focused on controlling the situation,” the spokesman said.
Somewhat less certain, however, is the fate of the upcoming inter-confederation playoffs. New Caledonia is scheduled to face Jamaica on March 26, with the winner taking on the DR Congo on March 31. On Monday, senior figures within FIFA were speculating that these games were more vulnerable, because of their timing and the need to provide a secure and safe environment for the matches.
When pressed about the playoff games on Monday evening, FIFA said it would not comment “on hypothetical situations and speculation,” and would “look forward to delivering safe and secure games in close collaboration with Mexican authorities.”
FIFA is also keen to ensure that Guadalajara has dummy runs of major international games before the World Cup, in line with FIFA protocols. If organizers are able to stage the playoff games without complications, it may go some way to easing doubts for the summer.
How soon will the unrest in Guadalajara subside?
The violent response is not necessarily a new norm. It’s what Jones describes as an almost “automated response” by cartels to the capture of a leader. “It’s a way to essentially communicate through violence with the government: ‘We’re going to deter you, or make it painful. Maybe we can’t get our guy back, but we can make it painful enough that you’re going to think twice any time you do this,’” Jones explained.
He therefore predicted that the current wave of violence would “last three or four days, until they’ve expended some energy and shown a deterrent effect against the Mexican government.” In fact, on Day 2, it was already subsiding.
“And then the key question — whether or not it calms down — will be whether or not there’s a succession mechanism in place,” Jones said.
The question, in other words, is whether the CJNG will quickly appoint a new leader. If not — and/or if Mexican authorities successfully target potential successors — the cartel could splinter into factions. In this scenario, it is weakened, but a power struggle could lead to sustained chaos.
A man rides a bicycle past the Guadalajara Cathedral and a FIFA World Cup countdown (Photo: Ulises Ruiz / AFP via Getty Images)
“We’ve seen that again and again throughout Mexico,” Jones said. “You decapitate the head of the beast, and the thinking is that the snake will die once you cut off its head; the problem is, you kind of get a hydra of multiple heads coming up and fighting with each other and the government, raising levels of violence.”
Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, the author of a forthcoming book on the “new generation” of cartels, expressed similar uncertainty in a phone interview while en route from Michoacán, a state that borders Jalisco, to Mexico City on Monday morning.
She told The Athletic that the structure of the CJNG — which has a “nationwide presence” but is “more of a franchise model” than the rival Sinaloa cartel — might make it “possible that the violence is going to be lessened quicker than in the past.” But, she concluded, “we really don’t know.”
Would the cartels target the World Cup?
That, experts say, is unlikely. Why? Because the cartels don’t just traffic drugs; they’re vast enterprises that seek control of countless industries, ranging from the illicit to the mainstream and mundane. Just as local restaurants and hotels see the World Cup as economic opportunity, so, in a way, do the cartels.
“They are businessmen — I mean, we are talking about corporations, we are talking about enterprises, entrepreneurs,” Correa-Cabrera said. She said she’d assume, therefore, that they’d tamp down violence around the World Cup, so as not to attract the attention of security forces or drive away tourists.
A burned car outside a store a day after violent clashes in Guadalajara last weekend. (Ulises Ruiz / AFP via Getty Images)
Jones agreed. “Under normal circumstances, I would say they’d probably be incentivized to keep a low profile and not have problems,” he said. “That event is going to draw a lot of people. And the organized crime groups are highly diversified. Any sporting event has a ton of potential prostitution/sex trafficking that many of these groups could also be involved in. Or [they] could be taxing local groups that are making money off these types of things. …
“They might be looking forward to this as a potential revenue-generator, in a whole series of ways — with the slight annoyance of more law enforcement presence.”
A raging conflict with the government, Jones clarified, could change that. But he added: “It’s also possible [the cartels would make] tactical or operational decisions, where it’s like, ‘Uh, we’re weak right now, we’ve been fighting the government for over a month, they want us to calm down, maybe we calm down right now and use this as a time to regroup.’”
How might all of this impact Guadalajara’s World Cup security plans?
It is certainly a major cause for concern. In September, Lemus discussed his administration’s security plans for the World Cup.
“The federal government is going to send us a large number of National Guard and Mexican Army personnel during the World Cup matches to truly armor the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area,” Lemus told The Athletic.
“We are currently building what will be the largest intelligence center in the Mexican Republic to become the state with the highest number of video surveillance monitoring points in the country.”
Sunday’s violent clashes have likely accelerated those security plans. One could assume that Lemus will now ask Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for additional resources and funding in order to fortify the city’s security protocols. In September, Lemus said that the federal government had allocated funds to Mexico’s three World Cup host cities.
He also confirmed that Guadalajara would hold FIFA’s Fan Fest in the city’s Historic Center, which is currently being renovated, and said that 200,000 fans were expected to attend.
With the world now watching, Lemus will seek to circumvent the negative headlines regarding Guadalajara. “This is a moment of unity in which we must work as a team,” he said on Monday while flanked by federal officials. “The people must be aware of our commitment to restoring peace and normality in Jalisco.”
